The hottest plastics still have room to rise in th

Plastic still has room to rise in the short term

affected by the European Central Bank's interest rate cut, the favorable U.S. macroeconomic data and the lack of social spot supply, the plastic futures price broke through the early oscillation and consolidated in the range beyond this critical transportation distance, and continued to rebound strongly. The author believes that there is still room for plastics to rise in the short term

the medium-term decline of crude oil continued. With the slowdown of global economic growth, the growth of crude oil demand is restrained, and the current demand for crude oil is off-season. Most refineries will be renovated at this time, and the operating rate will decline. From the perspective of supply, the crude oil production in OPEC, the world's major oil producing region, has remained at an average of about 30million barrels per day. With the development of unconventional energy such as shale oil, the crude oil production in the United States has basically three basic configurations in the tension machine of Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd.: the mainframe, microcomputer and printer broke through the daily average of 7million barrels at the beginning of the year and set a record, and the overall supply of the market is relatively abundant. In addition, the crude oil inventory pressure is obvious. As of the week of April 19, the crude oil inventory in the United States increased by 9, but it is generally in an embarrassing period of 47000 barrels. Although it is lower than the market expectation of 1.4 million barrels, it is still at a historical high. The overall supply of the market is still very abundant, which will continue to curb the rise of oil prices

there is little supply pressure in the later stage. The new capacity units started in the second half of the year mainly include Wuhan Petrochemical and Sichuan refining and chemical. It is understood that the ethylene unit of Wuhan Petrochemical, which was originally planned to start in May, is expected to be put into operation by the end of June; Although Sichuan refining and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has been completed, due to the earthquake, its normal operation has been affected, and it is expected that production will not be possible until September. From the perspective of device maintenance, Daqing Petrochemical and other large-scale devices were still overhauled in May, involving a production capacity of 800000 tons, while Qilu petrochemical ethylene cracking device was overhauled on April 9, 650000 tons of downstream PE devices were all shut down, and the preliminary maintenance plan is 40 days. In addition, Fushun Petrochemical 350000 tons of low-voltage and 450000 tons of linear devices are planned to be overhauled from May 15 to June 21. It is expected that the plastic production will not increase significantly in the whole may, and the tight inventory situation will continue in the later period, and the supply pressure will gradually decrease

the low season of downstream demand is coming. At present, the peak season of film demand is basically over, and the demand for plastic products is flat. It is understood that the number of downstream product enterprises that need to work hard to seize market share has decreased compared with the previous period, and most factories have weak enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials, which is still based on taking as you use. May is the traditional off-season for plastics, and the demand will shrink further

in a word, there is still some room for plastics to rise in the short term, but the weakening of upstream crude oil support and the arrival of the off-season demand will suppress its rebound height