The hottest plastics may rise in the aftermarket

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The aftermarket of plastics may fluctuate upward

plastics has been continuously rising recently supported by crude oil and macro benefits. The aftermarket will be consolidated or even callback with the departure of some short-term bulls. However, considering the cost support, its falling space is limited. It is expected that the support around 10350 yuan/ton is strong, and with the coming of the aftermarket traders and the replenishment season of agricultural film enterprises at the same time, the future price of plastics will be pushed up again, L1401 second target 10850 yuan/3 Thirdly, the ton prediction of the transmission system of the tensile strength testing machine remains unchanged

the international crude oil price continues to rise with the support of the continuous sharp decline in inventories and Bernanke's statement in favor of doves, and the aftermarket cost support will continue. First of all, from the perspective of global crude oil demand, the third quarter is the traditional peak season of gasoline consumption in the United States, and it is also the peak tourist season in Europe. As the largest crude oil consumption region in the world, the operating rate of refineries in the United States, Europe, Japan and China will continue to rise to a higher level during this period; Secondly, from the perspective of crude oil supply side, according to IEA, OPEC's idle crude oil production capacity is expected to gradually increase, and it is expected to increase to 2.5 million barrels per day in July and August. In early July, the Ekofisk crude oil unit in Conoco, the North Sea, was overhauled for 40 days, and it is expected to reduce the production capacity by 36000 barrels per day. In August, more units were overhauled. Therefore, the growth rate of future crude oil supply will continue to weaken; Third, from the perspective of the global crude oil inventory cycle, recently, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory has continued to decline significantly. In addition to the inventory consumption caused by the upgrading and resumption of production of BP's large refineries in North America, the continuous improvement of the startup rate of domestic refineries in the United States has also made a great contribution. In the third quarter, the U.S. crude oil inventory has entered the decline channel. In addition, the crude oil inventory in Europe and Japan also shows a seasonal decline law; Fourth, although Libyan ports have been restored and the situation in Egypt has eased, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has not been completely resolved; Finally, we need to check the following points: Nanke's speech unexpectedly biased towards doves, the dollar index fell sharply in the short term, and the recent U.S. liquidity tightening measures are expected to be lifted, which will also continue to benefit the crude oil futures price, Zhou Yufei, director of the materials department of China 1 automobile technology center. Overall, there is a high probability that crude oil prices will remain strong in the near future

since July, although the plastic futures price has continued to rebound, the proportion of the top 20 main headroom positions in the main bilateral positions has gradually increased, reaching 10% as of July 11, close to the extremely low level in history, indicating that the main short positions are extremely strong. However, from the perspective of the positions of the two contracts, this is mainly caused by the investment strategy of buying 9 and selling 1. However, recently, the price difference between September and January is currently at a high level, and the spot price in September has risen. In addition, the spot price has remained stable due to light trading. Therefore, there is little room for the rise in September, so there is little room for the price difference to continue to expand in the future, and some arbitrage orders of Yongan futures have left the market recently, The increasing probability of the main force turning in the future will support the 1401 contract price

however, the rise in petrochemical inventories and the launch of new production capacity will reduce the rise in plastics. First, the tight supply situation has been significantly improved, and the inventory of East China Petrochemical continues to rise; In addition, at the end of June, Wuhan Petrochemical's 800000 ton ethylene unit has been put into operation, its supporting 300000 ton HDPE unit has been put into operation, and 300000 ton full density unit will be put into operation later, which will continue to increase the supply pressure of plastic in the future, suppress the plastic price in the short term, reduce the price rise in the medium and long term, and the gradual recovery of PE import volume in the future will also suppress the rise of plastic

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